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But we would like to invite readers who can afford to do so, and for whom The Times of Israel has become important, to help support our journalism by joining The Times of Israel Community. Become a member of The Times of Israel Community. As the transitions associated with 1. A key governance challenge is how the convergence of voluntary domestic policies can be organized via aligned global, national and sub-national governance, based on reciprocity Ostrom and Walker, 17 and partnership UN, 18 , and how different actors and processes in climate governance can reinforce each other to enable this Gupta, ; Andonova et al.
The emergence of polycentric sources of climate action and transnational and subnational networks that link these efforts Abbott, 20 offer the opportunity to experiment and learn from different approaches, thereby accelerating approaches led by national governments Cole, ; Jordan et al. Section 4. The 1.
A wide range of 1. A variety of 1. These technology and policy options include energy demand reduction, greater penetration of low-emission and carbon-free technologies as well as electrification of transport and industry, and reduction of land-use change. Both the detailed integrated modelling pathway literature and a number of broader sectoral and bottom-up studies provide examples of how these sectoral technological and policy characteristics can be broken down sectorally for 1.
Both the integrated pathway literature and the sectoral studies agree on the need for rapid transitions in the production and use of energy across various sectors, to be consistent with limiting global warming to 1. The pace of these transitions is particularly significant for the supply mix and electrification Table 4. Individual, sectoral studies may show higher rates of change compared to IAMs Figueres et al. These trends and transformation patterns create opportunities and challenges for both mitigation and adaptation Sections 4.
Sectoral indicators of the pace of transformation in 1. If a number in square brackets is indicated, this is the number of scenarios for this indicator. There is agreement in the literature reviewed by Chapter 2 that staying below 1.
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Based on the IAM literature reviewed in Chapter 2, climate policies in line with limiting warming to 1. This can be compared to an average of about 3.
Not only the level of investment but also the type and speed of sectoral transformation would be impacted by the transitions associated with 1. IAM literature projects that investments in low-emission energy would overtake fossil fuel investments globally by in 1. The projected low-emission investments in electricity generation allocations over the period — are: solar 0. In contrast, investments in fossil fuel extraction and unabated fossil electricity generation along a 1.
Estimates of investments in other infrastructure are currently unavailable, but they could be considerably larger in volume than solely those in the energy sector Section 4. The available literature indicates that 1. Examples of effective approaches to integrate mitigation with adaptation in the context of sustainable development and to deal with distributional implications proposed in the literature include the utilization of dynamic adaptive policy pathways Haasnoot et al.
Yet, even with good policy design and effective implementation, 1. Projections of the magnitudes of global economic costs associated with 1. Managing these costs and distributional effects would require an approach that takes account of unintended cross-sector, cross-nation, and cross-policy trade-offs during the transition Droste et al. Nonetheless, literature on potential synergies and trade-offs between 1.
Areas of potential trade-offs include reduction in final energy demand in relation to SDG 7 the universal clean energy access goal and increase of biomass production in relation to land use, water resources, food production, biodiversity and air quality Chapter 2, Sections 2. Strengthening the institutional and policy responses to deal with these challenges is discussed in Section 4. A more in-depth assessment of the complexity and interfaces between 1. Incremental warming from 1.
Impacts are sector-, system- and region-specific, as described in Chapter 3. For example, precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences Chapter 3, Sections 3. Similarly, regional reduction in water availability and the lengthening of regional dry spells have negative implications for agricultural yields depending on crop types and world regions see for example Chapter 3, Sections 3.
Adaptation helps reduce impacts and risks. However, adaptation has limits. Not all systems can adapt, and not all impacts can be reversed Cross-Chapter Box 12 in Chapter 5. For example, tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching Chapter 3, Box 3. Society-wide transformation involves socio-technical transitions and social-ecological resilience Gillard et al.
Transitional adaptation pathways would need to respond to low-emission energy and economic systems, and the socio-technical transitions for mitigation involve removing barriers in social and institutional processes that could also benefit adaptation Pant et al.
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In this chapter, transformative change is framed in mitigation around socio-technical transitions, and in adaptation around socio-ecological transitions. In both instances, emphasis is placed on the enabling role of institutions including markets, and formal and informal regulation.
Realizing 1. This section examines whether the needed rates of change have historical precedents and are underway. Some studies conduct a de-facto validation of IAM projections. For CO 2 emission intensity over —, this resulted in the IAMs projecting declining emission intensities while actual observations showed an increase. For individual technologies in particular solar energy , IAM projections have been conservative regarding deployment rates and cost reductions Creutzig et al.
When metrics are normalized to gross domestic product GDP; as opposed to other normalization metrics such as primary energy , low-emission technology deployment rates used by IAMs over the course of the coming century are shown to be broadly consistent with past trends, but rates of change in emission intensity are typically overestimated Wilson et al. This finding suggests that barriers and enablers other than costs and climate limits play a role in technological change, as also found in the innovation literature Hekkert et al.
One barrier to a greater rate of change in energy systems is that economic growth in the past has been coupled to the use of fossil fuels. Disruptive innovation and socio-technical changes could enable the decoupling of economic growth from a range of environmental drivers, including the consumption of fossil fuels, as represented by 1. This may be relative decoupling due to rebound effects that see financial savings generated by renewable energy used in the consumption of new products and services Jackson and Senker, ; Gillingham et al.
A longer data trend would be needed before stable decoupling can be established. The observed decoupling in and was driven by absolute declines in both coal and oil use since the early s in Europe, in the past seven years in the United States and Australia, and more recently in China Newman, Oil consumption in China is still rising slowly, but absolute decoupling is ongoing in megacities like Beijing Gao and Newman, 49 see Box 4. In some regions and places, incremental adaptation would not be sufficient to mitigate the impacts of climate change on social-ecological systems see Chapter 3.